世界杯买球合法-世界杯靠谱买球

投资者偏好理论

世界杯靠谱买球的投资理念是基于 投资者偏好理论®, a concept unique to the firm and developed by the firm’s founders. 投资者偏好理论认为:股票的预期收益是其风险特征和市场分配给每种特征的价格(或预期风险溢价)的函数.“这一理念的关键是开发专有技术，以估计投资者如何在全球股市为风险定价，因为股票风险溢价是无法直接观察到的. 一次估计, 将风险溢价与股票对每种溢价的风险敞口相结合，计算出股票目前的预期回报率. This innovative investment philosophy is applied throughout the security selection, 投资组合构建, 以及交易过程的步骤. Rather than making static assumptions about the characteristics of superior investments, 该理论认为，投资者对特定特征的偏好会随着经济和市场条件的变化而变化.

The firm's investment philosophy is designed to address fundamental investment questions, “How do investors view key equity risks in the current market environment? 投资者的决策如何影响风险价格?” Three decades of quantitative research suggests that shifts in valuations, 业务, and market conditions create new equilibrium prices for a variety of risk factors. Do investors care more about the risk of inflation or deflation? 预期的收益估计或报告的结果? The safety of strong balance sheets or the opportunities of an improving economy on weaker balance sheets? These are just a few of the many factors captured in the process.

然而，大多数定价模型(e.g., CAPM or APT) provide a framework for estimating risk and return based on a fixed, 风险的长期定义, 投资者偏好理论提供了一个灵活的框架来评估随着市场条件变化的回报和风险.

为什么要采用新的方法?

大多数基金经理专注于识别历史上产生超额回报的股票特征. 20世纪70年代末, 小型股票的主导地位使投资者认为，小型公司更能适应不断变化的市场条件，具有更高的风险，这为他们提供了较小的股票溢价. 在1980年代, value's dominance over growth led to the broadly held view that investors overpay for growth stocks. 十年后, 投资者转变了他们对全球繁荣的看法, 温和的通胀环境和贸易壁垒的减少，创造了一个让跨国成长型公司拥有竞争优势的环境. By the end of the decade with the capitalization of internet companies reaching $2 trillion, investors declared that the information revolution had just begun, 实体公司的命运是暗淡的, and that the valuations of the post venture 部门 of the market were in fact warranted. 今天, 随着资本像30年前一样追逐替代能源，投资者开始谈论高油价的影响.

历史表明，投资者在形成对未来投资机会和市场效率低下的看法时，会受到过去的过度影响. 这样想有什么风险? Embracing the consensus view as to why past factor returns will likely repeat, 不管这个论点有多理性, frequently contributes to under-performance in subsequent periods.

The problem extends beyond the obvious one of chasing yesterday's winners. 以一种更微妙的方式, changes in market structure can impact an investor's risk management process, forcing higher exposures to risks which have become over-priced. This in fact happened to many portfolio managers during the 1990's, 谁, despite their misgivings over the valuations of internet companies, succumbed to the pressures of risk management and purchased internet companies at their peak.

投资者的偏好?

投资者偏好包括任何投资者认为代表影响股票价值的有利或不利风险的股票特征. 在市场周期中, investors assign values or prices to a variety of risk characteristics such as market factors (e.g., market capitalization, price momentum), income statement and balance sheet measures (e.g.， E/P或B/P)，分析师预期(E/P或B/P).g., estimate revision, earnings surprise), and 部门 risks (e.g.科技、互联网、医疗保健等.).

To better understand how these preferences change through time, 人们可以看看历史因素回报率, 通过计算将一个因素的性能与另一个因素隔离开来. By analyzing these returns it becomes quite clear that investor preferences are not random, 但随着投资者对市场周期看法的改变，市场也在演变. 价格变动实际上与固定收益市场中更常见的系统性风险定价行为非常相似, 如信用和提前支付利差或期限风险.

谁决定了投资者的偏好?

投资者的偏好受到华尔街分析师的影响, 学者, 机构账户经理, 零售共同基金经理, 还有私人股本投资者. 而股票价格可能表现出随机行走特征, 投资者的偏好会随着时间的推移而变化, 创造明显的价格.

世界杯靠谱买球 shows that investor preferences are generally applied across the market with a couple of exceptions. While capital flows freely across the growth and value spectrum, plan sponsors generally control the allocation between large and small cap stocks. In fact, given the segmentation in the management of large vs. small capitalization portfolios, it is not surprising that preferences would differ. 除了, 当全球资本在不同地区之间流动时，世界杯靠谱买球发现不同地区的投资者往往会对风险进行不同的定价. 因此, 世界杯靠谱买球需要考虑到这样一个事实，即全球市场在为特定风险成分定价方面并没有完全整合.

如何衡量偏好?

超过25年, quantitative managers have measured factor returns through an analysis of monthly stock returns. 通过分解共同因素和部门效应, as much as two-thirds of a stock's excess return can be explained. While traditional methods are useful for performance attribution and risk measurement, 世界杯靠谱买球已经确定了从分析中提取更多信息内容的几个增强功能, 提供更稳定和可靠的回报.

一旦对每个因素的收益进行了估计, a forecast is made to determine the new equilibrium price of each risk today. This information is translated into discrete alpha estimates for each security in our universe. Each alpha estimate is derived by multiplying each security's exposure to approximately 20 risk characteristics, 的价格, (i.e.，预期回报).

概述

世界杯靠谱买球在证券选择和投资组合建设方面采用了创新的投资过程，逐步调整投资组合以适应市场条件的变化. 世界杯靠谱买球认识到，投资者对特定风险特征的偏好随着经济环境的变化而变化, and thus we believe a dynamic process is critical to achieving consistent results. 世界杯靠谱买球的量化估值模型提供了客户投资组合中每种股票的风险和回报来源的透明度，并动态管理风险预算，以确保在每个时间点的风险权衡获得最佳回报. 世界杯买球合法的投资流程概述如下.

该过程分为两个主要阶段. 在动态阿尔法股票选择模型®的前三个步骤中，开发股票的阿尔法. 然后, 使用这些阿尔法, 项目组合管理 constructs customized portfolios and executes trades through the firm’s trading desk.

动态Alpha股票选择模型

世界杯买球合法的动态阿尔法股票选择模型(动态Alpha股票选择模型®)技术(以下简称“模型”)可以对超过100种股票产生阿尔法估值 9,000 全球证券. 它采用基于因素的方法, 严格测量和分析基础, 部门, 以及世界杯靠谱买球认为对投资者买卖证券很重要的国家变量. 按每个因素计算收益. 接下来，生成每个因素的预测. There is no bias or preconception of what that forecast should be, 如果它是负的，它也不会被迫为零. It is accepted that investors understand how and why a factor is priced, 这取决于他们的风险偏好. 一旦每个因素的期望值确定, 然后考虑每只股票对该因素的风险敞口. Stock alphas are a function of exposures to each factor multiplied by the factor forecast. 因为严格遵守上述流程, the criteria for selecting stocks are systematic and comprehensive. 然而, 因为模型是自适应的, it does not have the same difficulty at inflection points that static quantitative models face.

绩效归因表明，历史上产生的大多数阿尔法来自基本因素，积极但较小的组成部分来自部门或国家因素. 世界杯靠谱买球的行业/国家管理方法是独特的，因为行业/国家代表了股票回报的一个组成部分. 换句话说, 部门/国家分类同上面提到的基本因素一样被视为风险因素. 作为一个结果, 投资组合中的部门和国家权重由下至上的基础上根据个别证券的吸引力来确定.

项目组合管理

项目组合管理 is responsible for using the output of the Model, 风险的估计, and technology developed by the firm’s 世界杯靠谱买球 Department to build client tailored portfolios. While 世界杯买球合法's 动态Alpha股票选择模型® drives the investment process, the Portfolio Managers provide an integral link between 世界杯靠谱买球, 交易, 操作, 和客户.

下图描述了如何将客户需求与世界杯买球合法的自营市场预期相结合，以开发客户投资组合.